The UK monetary providers sector won’t be hit by Brexit as badly as feared, London’s Lord Mayor has mentioned.
Charles Bowman instructed web site Politico between 5,000 and 13,000 jobs might go by the UK’s departure on 30 March 2019.
The determine, which assumes the UK will safe a transition deal, relies on public Brexit job bulletins by Metropolis corporations and inside workers evaluation.
In 2016, the consultancy Oliver Wyman predicted that the UK might see between 65,000 and 75,000 job losses.
That determine was based mostly on the occasion of no deal being agreed between the EU and the UK – and on monetary establishments shedding workers for months after the purpose that the UK formally leaves the UK.
The Financial institution of England was thought to have used the 75,000 determine as a “cheap situation”, notably if there is no such thing as a particular UK-EU monetary providers deal.
- The sacrifice at coronary heart of Might’s Brexit deal
- Actuality Verify: Why providers matter in any Brexit deal
Mr Bowman’s new assumption relies on a 21-month transition interval will likely be agreed, which might give the federal government and enterprise till December 2020 to make Brexit preparations.
He instructed Politico that the Metropolis feels more and more assured that “barring dotting of i’s and crossing of t’s,” the transition interval is a completed deal.
Stephen Jones, the chief government of lobbying group UK Finance, didn’t reject the brand new estimate for March 2019 however mentioned the long run impression would rely on the eventual deal.
He instructed the BBC that “divorces will be messy or will be cheap the place each events consider the youngsters”.
Mr Bowman’s forecast comes simply over per week after international secretary Jeremy Hunt warned of a “very actual threat of a Brexit no deal by chance”.
Mr Hunt has warned that such an end result would hurt the EU due to its reliance on monetary providers offered by UK corporations.